The churn signal every CRM encodes, that had no signal

A back-test over 763 company-years and 124 churn events showed engagement recency, worth 30 points in the renewal-risk model, predicted nothing. Churning accounts had been contacted more recently, not less. We rebuilt it around the four signals that held up, with coverage and confidence stated on every response.

What we took from it

• Account tier, ARR and ticket counts were each skewed by reverse causality or mapping bias.